I would love to have a wonderfully uncomplicated answer to whether wine is making a comeback. I love the strange grapes, the places, the food, and the fact that a perfectly ordinary-looking bottle can send me down a rabbit hole involving geology or fungi. Of course I want the people making and selling those wines to have a good year. Unfortunately, enthusiasm doesn't get to fill out the sales reports.
This article started in June 2025 with an optimistic question about what the next couple of years might bring. Looking at the information available in October 2026, I think the more interesting story is how uneven the adjustment has been. There are wineries finding customers and reasons to be hopeful, alongside a broader market that is still struggling. We also don't have a completed calendar year of 2026 results yet, so forecasts need to stay forecasts.
That distinction matters because wine can be fascinating, enjoyable and worth caring about while fewer bottles are being sold. A busy producer, a particularly good wine list or a promising new product can tell us something useful without announcing the recovery of an entire industry. I still want to talk about where the possibilities are. I just want to keep the corkscrew enthusiasm and the arithmetic in the same room.
The Broad Numbers Haven't Turned Into a Celebration Yet
The International Organisation of Vine and Wine's May 2026 report estimated global wine consumption in 2025 at 208 million hectolitres, down 2.7% from 2024. Nine of the ten largest wine markets recorded lower consumption volumes. These are estimates of consumption, rather than a count of glasses ordered in restaurants, but they give us a much wider view than an exciting new wine bar can.
The US picture also needs a little care. In its January 2026 announcement of its annual wine report, Silicon Valley Bank estimated 2025 US sales at about 329 million cases and $74.3 billion. That represented declines of 2% in cases and 1.6% in dollars. The declines were smaller than in 2024, which is encouraging, but the numbers were still moving down.
I can appreciate a smaller decline without pretending it has changed direction. If a restaurant bill gets less expensive than I feared but is still more than I can afford, the improvement is welcome and the problem remains. Wine's situation is obviously considerably more complicated than my dinner budget. The basic distinction between getting worse more slowly and actually growing is still useful.
A More Expensive Average Bottle Can Hide a Problem
The phrase fewer bottles, but better ones sounds comforting to a wine person. It suggests everybody has simply decided to buy something more interesting and drink it thoughtfully with dinner. That can happen for an individual customer, of course. It isn't the only way an average bottle price can rise across a market.
The 2026 shipping report from Sovos ShipCompliant and WineBusiness Analytics found that US winery direct-to-consumer shipments fell 15% in volume and 6% in value during 2025, while average price per bottle shipped rose 11%. Its explanation includes a change in the mix of sales: buyers of less expensive wines were dropping out faster. That leaves expensive bottles with a larger share, even without everybody deciding to trade up.
This is a particular shipping channel, not every wine purchase in America. Still, it makes me cautious about treating a higher average price as proof that customers are happily spending more. If the lower-priced end loses enough buyers, the remaining average can look rather grand while the overall business gets smaller. A mathematical glow-up is considerably less helpful than another customer.
The Cellar Has Its Own Schedule
Wine also has a timing problem that makes an abrupt comeback difficult. A producer has already grown grapes, made wine and committed money long before somebody decides whether to buy the bottle. When demand changes, those earlier decisions don't disappear. The barrels don't receive a consumer-trends update and politely empty themselves.
The OIV estimated 2025 world wine production at 227 million hectolitres, only slightly above the unusually low 2024 level. It described below-average production as helping ease stock pressure in the existing market. That's a different situation from a small harvest automatically creating a shortage. Production and drinking demand also aren't a simple subtraction, because wine has industrial uses and stocks carry across years.
Silicon Valley Bank's 2026 industry report expected continued, moderating declines and persistent inventory pressure. Its proposed path toward a bottom in 2027–28 was an outlook, not a date anybody could circle as a guaranteed recovery party. That makes sense to me as a reason to watch what changes at retail and in customer demand. A promising forecast still has to meet the next set of actual results.
There Are Real Examples of Wineries Doing Better
The 2026 direct-to-consumer report from First Citizens' wine team drew on responses from 450 family wineries. It reported 22% revenue growth for the top quartile, flat direct-to-consumer sales for the median winery and a 13% decline for the bottom quartile. Those are very different experiences inside one survey. They give us evidence of successful businesses without turning the middle of the group into a boom.
That survey and the shipping report aren't measuring exactly the same thing. One looks at participating wineries and their direct customer businesses; the other estimates winery shipments to US consumers. Their different results are a reminder to ask what is being counted before getting swept up in a headline. I'm interested in what successful producers are doing, and I'd want to know whether the lessons fit the winery trying to use them.
An Entire Generation Isn't One Customer
I don't think wine does itself any favours by describing younger adults as a problem to be solved. A birth-year range doesn't tell you what somebody can afford, what they like with dinner or whether they drink alcohol at all. I wouldn't expect every person my age to want the same wine. Some of them probably don't want to hear quite as much about grapes as I do either, which is fair.
Gallup's July 2026 survey found that 54% of US adults said they drink alcohol, matching its 2025 low. The decline since 2023 extended across most major demographic groups, rather than belonging to one younger cohort. This is self-reported use of alcohol generally, not a wine sales measurement. It still gives us a reason to think beyond the idea that one generation needs a more appealing label.
For someone who is curious about wine, I think a useful introduction begins with what they already enjoy. A conversation about whether they like something crisp, fruity, earthy or drying can go a long way before we start reciting appellation rules. The rules are interesting too, obviously, and I will happily talk about them. They just don't need to be the entrance exam.
Wine Australia's June 2026 account of its commissioned US research found that knowing and liking a grape variety mattered to purchases. Younger participants were also more open to several sources of recommendations. That suggests something practical to me: help somebody connect an unfamiliar bottle to a taste they understand. Give the story somewhere to begin.
Options Matter, Including the Option Not to Drink
I recently revisited the no- and low-alcohol investment by Penfolds' parent company, because making wine-style drinks with less alcohol involves some genuinely interesting work. It belongs in this wider conversation as one way producers are responding to different preferences. A new facility or a new bottle gives people another option. It doesn't establish that the whole traditional wine market has recovered.
Nor does somebody choosing a non-alcoholic drink need to be treated as a customer who has temporarily wandered off. I'd like a table to feel welcoming to the people sitting at it, including the person ordering water. Wine culture can make room for curiosity without requiring everybody to participate in exactly the same way. There's already enough to discuss about dinner without asking anybody to defend what's in their glass.
The Price and the Explanation Both Have to Make Sense
My hope for approachable bottles is still very much alive. A wine can be interesting without being rare, and I like the idea of somebody finding a grape or region they want to return to at a price that works for them. That's a preference, rather than a claim that the whole middle of the market is flourishing. A price band contains an awful lot of different wines and customers.
Wine Australia's June bulletin identified growth in particular US retail price segments within a declining market. Those narrower opportunities deserve attention. They don't make every bottle between two convenient numbers easy to sell. The wine, the price and a customer's reason for choosing it still have to fit together.
A Good Story Still Needs Something Behind It
I love learning who made a wine and what happened in the vineyard. The details are part of why I find wine so endlessly distracting in the first place. But a lovely description of a place can't automatically establish a producer's environmental claims, working conditions or commercial prospects. Those are questions that deserve their own answers.
The same research found that certified sustainable production mattered to many participants. Clear communication about what is being claimed seems useful here. I'd want to know what a certification covers and who checks it. Grapevines are beautiful; they also make extremely convenient packaging decoration.
Climate adaptation belongs in this conversation too, because wine is agriculture and producers have to make decisions that last beyond one sales season. A new planting is a commitment to a place, with weather and water conditions that deserve serious consideration. I can be excited about unfamiliar grapes without declaring any one variety a universal solution to drought, heat or the economics of selling wine. Where and how something is grown still matters.
The International Picture Is Uneven, Too
Wine Australia's report for the twelve months ending June 2026 put Australian wine exports at A$2.30 billion, down 7%, with volume down 6%. It also identified growth in some destinations alongside declines in major markets. That is a much more useful picture than saying export channels have simply reopened and everybody is breathing easily again. A gain in one destination can matter a great deal to a producer while the country's total moves the other way.
I find that local detail worth keeping in the story. Wine comes from particular places and reaches people through particular businesses, so the experience of one region or producer can differ sharply from the average. A global figure helps us see the scale of a problem. It doesn't tell us that every person growing grapes is having the same year.
The Comeback I'd Actually Like to See
I'd like to see more people who are interested in wine feel comfortable asking questions, and more producers able to make a living answering that interest. I want a useful recommendation to be possible without a lecture, and an affordable bottle to receive some of the attention usually reserved for spectacularly expensive ones. I can care about the industry's future without asking people to drink more than they want to. A good business has to find a way to make sense for its customers too.
Hospitality is a particularly interesting part of that for me. A clear explanation, a thoughtful answer and a welcoming experience can help somebody decide whether they want to learn more. They aren't guarantees of a sale or a cure for excess inventory. They're still things I would hope to find wherever wine is being offered, especially when the person asking is brand new to it.
So my optimism is attached to specific possibilities: a producer finding an audience, a useful new option, a bottle somebody enjoys enough to remember. I'd happily get distracted by another unfamiliar grape along the way, occassionally before deciding what I'd eat with it. The broader numbers will have to show us when a recovery has arrived. Until then, there's plenty worth understanding about what people are trying and why some of it is working.
Related Reads
Sources and Further Reading
Silicon Valley Bank: January 2026 report announcement and 2025 estimates
Sovos and WineBusiness Analytics: 2025 winery shipping results
First Citizens: 2026 direct-to-consumer winery survey report
Gallup: Americans' Drinking Remains at Record Low, August 2026
Wine Australia: export report, twelve months ending June 2026
